Wait and See — Windows-vs-Mac Will Repeat Itself
The cry of “Windows-vs-Mac will repeat itself” is repeating itself a lot lately.
And surprise: It’s right.
How so? Let’s see:
1984
The year is 1984. The very first Mac is just now going on sale. At that moment, the personal computer market is heavily dominated (something like 75-85%, if I remember correctly) by MS-DOS PCs, and has been for a few years. Tons of software exist for MS-DOS PCs, and more is being created every day.
Apple is, in effect, asking everyone, users and developers alike, to start over with a totally new system.
Typical computer buyers and software authors — even those that might be intrigued by the Mac’s user interface — adopt a wait-and-see position. They think, “I’ll continue to use MS-DOS PCs, and see if there’s a big migration to the Mac. If there is, then I’ll switch to the Mac. Otherwise, I won’t.”
And so, of course, there is no big migration to the Mac.
And Windows? It’s just a software layer over MS-DOS. Over the next several years, MS-DOS PCs will transform into Windows PCs. But Mac has already lost the battle before Windows will even appear.
2004
Flash forward twenty years to 2004. Microsoft is just now introducing the market to PlaysForSure, its licensed spec for portable digital music players and online music stores. Right when PlaysForSure is going on sale, the market for those products is heavily dominated (70%, I think) by Apple’s iPod and iTunes Music Store.
What do consumers do? They adopt a wait-and-see: “If I notice that everyone is switching from iPod to PlaysForSure, then I’ll switch too. But not before.” And so PlaysForSure goes nowhere. And iPod continues to dominate.
2007
Jump ahead to late 2006, early 2007. Microsoft announces the Zune. The exact same thing happens to it that happened to PlaysForSure, and for exactly the same reason.
Around that same time, Apple introduces the iPhone. Windows Mobile has existed for many years, but is not dominating the market for smartphones. In fact, the smartphone market is fragmented among multiple products. There is no dominant player with majority market share. So when people see the iPhone, and how cool it is compared to all other smartphones of the time, nobody adopts a wait-and-see position. They want to go get an iPhone — unless they’re in the USA and can’t or don’t want to switch to AT&T.
2010
By early 2010, when Android phones arrive in force, iPhone has about a quarter of the smartphone market; i.e. there still isn’t a dominant player. And iPhone still isn’t available on Verizon, Sprint, or T-Mobile in the USA. So Android does pretty well, especially in the USA.
2011
What will happen when Apple introduces a CDMA iPhone that runs on non-AT&T carriers? I’m not sure. But it looks like the right move.
Now Windows Phone 7 has arrived. Will it do well? I doubt it, but there’s no dominant player to guarantee it won’t.
In the tablet arena, however, there’s a huge, 99%, dominant player: Apple’s iPad. And it’s not locked to any particular data carrier. Will Windows-vs-Mac repeat itself in the tablet market? I think it probably will. Just like the Mac was unable to unseat the dominant MS-DOS-then-Windows PC in the 1980s, just like PlaysForSure and Zune were unable to unseat the dominant iPod & iTunes — so competing tablets will be unable to unseat the dominant iPad.
But don’t try to tell that to the “Windows-vs-Mac will repeat itself” guys. No matter what happens in the market, those people will forever live in the 1990s. To them, Windows-vs-Mac “repeating itself” can only ever mean one thing: Somehow, some way, the company named “Apple” must lose.
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